Australia just dropped a hot CPI print: annual inflation hit 3.8% in October, the highest in 10 months, and above expectations. Core inflation also ticked up, reinforcing that price pressures remain broad-based across services and housing.
That matters — and not in a “rate cut soon” way. The surprise CPI strength has cooled markets’ hopes of further rate cuts by the RBA. In fact, talk of a potential rate hike down the line is creeping in.
All eyes are now on AUD/USD. The pair is hovering around the lower end of its recent range, near the 0.64-0.65 zone. A decisive move below ~0.6400 could open the door for deeper downside. Technicals suggest that a break under key support could test lower levels.
Bottom line — for anyone holding or planning large AUD flows, elevated inflation AND hawkish RBA tone may give AUD some near-term stability. But if the USD gains strength and AUD fails to hold support, we could see AUD/USD slip lower.
If you’re managing a big transfer (or about to), now might be a window worth watching closely
AUD/USD - 1 Hour Chart
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