A huge run that is now losing momentum After weeks of near-vertical price action, USDJPY is finally slowing down. You can see this in the shortening candles and reduced volatility near the highs. Big moves like this rarely continue in a straight line.

A gap below that has not been filled There is a clear price gap around the 149–150 zone. Markets often return to retest these levels before resuming their main trend. It does not guarantee a pullback, but it increases the probability.

Fibonacci retracement levels lining up The 0.382, 0.50, and 0.618 Fib levels all sit below current price. These are classic retracement points where buyers often step back in.

The carry trade still matters Japan’s ultra-low rates have kept USDJPY elevated for years. Borrowing in JPY and buying higher-yield currencies still makes sense while Japan remains slow to tighten. But any change in tone from the Bank of Japan could unwind parts of this positioning very quickly.

Interest rate decisions are around the corner The next BOJ meeting and incoming Fed commentary could be the catalyst for the next major move. If BOJ signals even a small shift toward tightening, USDJPY could retrace quickly. If not, carry flows may keep supporting the pair.