Weekly Briefing for International Athletes, Businesses and Global Professionals
This week has delivered one of the clearest windows we have seen in months for anyone dealing in cross border payments. The Australian Dollar has lifted about 2 percent against the USD over the past ten days. The USD remains under pressure as the market leans toward rate cuts. Eurozone data has surprised to the upside. Japan continues to tease policy shifts. And Australia moves into a big GDP print that could set the tone for the rest of the year.
For athletes, businesses, sports tour operators and expats, these moves are not background noise.
A two cent swing on a large USD payment can be the difference between hitting your margin or missing it. In a week where AUD/USD sits at the top of its three month range, the decisions you make now shape your next three to twelve months.
This week’s briefing breaks down how to use this to your advantage.
AUD/USD - Daily Chart - 2025
Protect Your Business for the Next 12 Months
The past ten days have shown why timing matters. The AUD has lifted roughly 2 percent, and that small move has created a meaningful opportunity for anyone paying USD invoices.
When you run a business, manage a sports academy, book international travel or organise sports tours, your costs are often fixed in USD months before you actually need to send the money. A couple of cents on the exchange rate can be worth thousands.
Here is how to think about it.
1. Understand the Window You Are In
AUD/USD has spent the past three months trapped in a tight range of around 3 percent. Last week’s stronger CPI figure pushed the Aussie back to the top of that range. That gives you clarity. You can see the upper boundary and the lower boundary of where your risk sits. When the market moves into the higher end of the range, this is when planning beats hoping.
2. A 2 Percent Move Is More Important Than You Think
A 250,000 USD supplier invoice can shift by roughly 7,000 AUD
A sports tour company booking US hotels, flights and entry fees can see margins tighten quickly
Clubs, academies and organisations that price their programs in AUD but pay USD are exposed every day
This week’s lift gives you a chance to strengthen your position.
3. Planning 3 to 12 Months Ahead
The biggest mistake I see is waiting.
Waiting for the “perfect rate”.
Waiting for the market to move higher.
Waiting because things feel stable.
Stability is the opportunity.
Once the market moves, you lose it.
👉 You don’t need to lock in your full exposure.
You can secure a portion of what you know you need to pay over the next 3 to 12 months. This protects your bottom line while still giving you room to benefit if the AUD pushes higher.
4. How a Forward Contract Helps
A forward contract lets you lock in today’s rate for a future payment.
You remove uncertainty and fix your worst case.
Here is the simple version:
You know you will need USD in 3 to 12 months
You lock in a portion now
Your cost becomes predictable
Your margin is protected
You stop reacting to every market swing
This is how professional operations plan ahead.
It is calm. It is predictable. It is smart.
This week has provided a solid window.
👉 If AUD/USD pulls back, this was the moment.
👉 If it breaks higher, you still have flexibility on the remaining exposure.
You can read the full breakdown here:
This Week in FX
The AUD gained on stronger CPI. The US Dollar remained soft as the market priced in the likelihood of a rate cut. Eurozone services data improved. Japan continues to walk the line between stimulus and tightening. This week’s heavy US data calendar and Australia’s GDP will shape the next leg.
Chart of the Week: AUD/USD
The Aussie is back at the top of its range. CPI pushed it higher. GDP and US data now decide whether this turns into a breakout or another reversal. Technical levels give your triggers.
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This Week’s Market Highlights
A simple overview of the biggest currency moves and opportunities from the past seven days.
Choose the updates that matter most to you.
JPY Focus
Japan signals a potential rate hike which could affect every market globally.
Read the full breakdown ⬇
Overall Market Snapshot 📊
A quick look at the major markets and what is driving sentiment this week.
Currencies never move in isolation. Equities, commodities and crypto all shape risk appetite, rate expectations and how strong or weak the USD feels against AUD, GBP and EUR. The snapshot below keeps it simple and gives you the bigger picture.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin has pushed back above 92,000 USD after recovering from early-week selling.
Bank of America has formally advised its wealth clients that crypto can form 1 to 4 percent of a balanced portfolio, which is one of the clearest endorsements from a major US bank so far.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see steady inflows. Bitcoin is still trading like a high-beta risk asset, lifting when equities and rate-cut expectations improve.
Oil
Brent crude is trading near 60 USD per barrel, sitting close to the bottom of its yearly range.
Soft demand and rising inventories are keeping prices capped, even with ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
Cheaper oil generally supports currencies of energy-importing nations and takes pressure off central bank inflation concerns.
Gold
Gold is holding firm above 4,200 USD per ounce after a small pullback.
Rate-cut expectations for December continue to support non-yielding assets while keeping the US dollar on the back foot.
Some research houses are even floating extreme upside scenarios into the 5,700 to 10,000 USD range in shock-event situations, which shows how crowded the bullish narrative has become.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 is trading just under 6,900 and is up around 17 percent year to date.
Markets continue to lean into the soft-landing plus rate-cuts story, with tech and crypto-linked stocks leading the rebound.
Some strategists are already projecting potential 2026 upside toward 7,500 if earnings hold up and the Fed manages a clean easing cycle.
The wider crypto market
The structural story this week is access and endorsement. Vanguard will now allow clients to trade regulated crypto ETFs and funds on its platform, opening the door to more than 11 trillion USD of client assets.
Combined with Bank of America recommending crypto as a small but intentional allocation, two of the most conservative institutions are effectively giving digital assets the green light.
Despite this, ETF flows recently flipped to outflows and overall volumes are down. The long-term direction is becoming clear. Crypto is slowly shifting from speculation to an established alternative allocation.
All of this impacts the FX landscape. Stronger equities and a more dovish Federal Reserve keep the US dollar capped. Softer oil prices help importers. Steady gold shows safe-haven demand is still alive.
Technical levels give your triggers.
Information is everywhere.
Markets move fast.
Your advantage is a strategy built before the market decides for you.
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